Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
